PAF 502 Public Service Research II
Fall, 2004

Required Texts:

Studenmund, A. H. (2001). Using Econometrics: A Practical Approach , 4 th ed. Addison Wesley Longman: Boston.

• One version of this text includes a CD with EViews, a statistical package that can be used in this course. EViews runs on Windows-based computers. You don't actually have to buy the one with EViews, but I do recommend it.

Hardy, Melissa A. (1993). Regression With Dummy Variables . Sage: Newbury Park, CA. ISBN: 0-8039-5128-0

Recommended:

A statistical package such as EViews (packaged with some copies of Studenmund), or SPSS (ASU computer store sells SPSS both in student versions--$77 for Windows, but the computer store guy thinks it is excessively watered down--and Grad Pack--$199 and it's a full version).

Hacker, Diana (2000). A Pocket Style Manual , 3 rd Ed. (or other edition). (~$12)

Sources:

ASU Statistics Hotline . Location: WEXLER (PSA) 824. Phone: 480-965-STAT. http://www.asu.edu/graduate/statistics/hotline/

ASU Writing Center . Free to students and available to Graduate students as well as undergraduates. It is located in the Language and Literature building, room 340 (965-4272). http://www.asu.edu/duas/wcenter/

Resources in social research methods are available at http://gsociology.icaap.org/methods, which provides links to free on-line books, free software, manuals, articles on how to do social research, including policy analysis, surveys, interviews, observations, data presentation, and more. http://www.rdg.ac.uk/ssc/develop/dfid/booklets/toptgs.html#a2ninebasicpoints gives specific points on the use of tables, graphs, and charts in papers

Computer Classroom Rules:

· Food : No Food in Classroom.

· Drink : Only drinks in enclosed containers are allowed. Non-sticky drinks such as water or tea are best. Drinks should be kept on the floor, not on the computer tables.

· Electronic Access: Do not access non-course-related materials during class. This includes email. Intentionally accessing inappropriate material during class will result in dismissal from class.

· Hours : Rooms are opened approximately 1/2-hour before class starts and locked 10-20 minutes after class ends. This is to prevent theft and vandalism.

Expectations and Recommendations:

· You are expected to abide by all ASU policies regarding academic integrity. Beyond that, I expect you to act with integrity.

· You are expected to have a computer account with both email and Internet access.

· You can activate your free ASU computer account using the web at https://author1.asu.edu/cgi-bin/WebObjects/APSelfSub

· In addition to Computing Commons, there are several lesser-known computer labs: the brand-new Lattie Coor Building (NW of Wilson Hall) has a large computing commons on the ground floor; the School of Public Affairs has the PAL (Public Affairs Lab), located in Wilson Hall, second floor; and the MU has a new computer lab in the Memorial Union, 1st floor, South-West end, and a new access center in the basement (SE end). There is also a computer lab kitty-corner across the hall from our classroom.

· You are expected to write using accepted rules of grammar, usage, and punctuation.

· Writing well is a basic requirement for Public Administrators. In fact, during surveys of public managers they consistently, over several decades, cite good writing skills as one of the top three skills they consider important for public sector employees. Therefore, though this is not a writing class, I may mark poor writing and may even reduce grades based on it.

· I will grade the Final Project partly based on quality of writing.

· You are expected to do each week's reading before that week's class.

· You should bring the books for that week's material to class.

· I recommend that you have a calculator and BRING IT TO CLASS AND TO EXAMS. It doesn't need to be fancy, but a statistical calculator that you understand how to use will help you I recommend that you join ASUSPAN, the School of Public Affairs listserve. Much useful and interesting information--including job and internship announcements--is posted there. How to join ASUSPAN:

· Send an email message to spa@asu.edu OR

· Sign up on the web at http://lists.asu.edu/archives/index.html

Minimum Course Elements:

In order to increase the similarity of the MPA degree earned by each student and to insure that core classes cover the key topics for MPAs, the faculty of the School of Public Affairs determines minimum elements for each of the core classes. For PAF 502, the following description and list of topics has been approved.

This course is viewed as primarily a research analysis course focusing on using regression, with some emphasis on design, the use of others' research, and presentation.

• 1. Review of inferential statistics
• 2. Approaches to data analysis; principles of causal analysis
• 3. Doing regression analysis (using computers), including (but not limited to)
  • · Thorough grounding in the assumptions of regression
  • · Dealing with heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation
  • · Diagnostics
  • · Dealing with dummy variables
  • · Non-linear relationships in linear regression
  • · Dealing with time-series data (if time allows) (F04 it won't)
• 4. Data acquisition, including uses of secondary sources
• 5. Data coding
• 6. Reading and analysis of quantitative research articles
• 7. Using research results to make decisions
  • · Interpretation of results and their policy meanings
• 8. Ethical issues, including
  • · Plagiarism
  • · Correct citing of data sources
  • · “Stretching” conclusions
  • · Using projects for one course in another
• 9. Diversity issues, especially in the use of measures of gender and race/ethnicity in statistical analysis
• 10. Report writing and oral presentation
  • · Formal critique of oral presentations
    

Grading:

In-class Exercises and Participation 5%

Out-of-class Exercises 15%

· These are primarily graded on effort , so you MUST show work (especially for those homework problems that have answers in the back of the book)

· I recommend that you form study groups as research indicates they can improve learning, especially for quantitative topics

In-Class Quiz 1—Review of Basic Statistics 10%--T, 9/7/04, Open book, 1-1/2 hours

In-Class Quiz 2—Basic OLS through Hypothesis Testing 15%--T, October 26.

· Open books, open notes. Please note this means it focuses on comprehension, analysis, and reasoning rather than memorization.

In-Class Quiz 3—Functional Form & Violating the Classical Assumptions 15%--T, Dec. 7

· Open books, open notes. Please note this means it focuses on comprehension, analysis, and reasoning rather than memorization.

Final Project —40%--Paper 35%, Presentation 5%--Papers due Thursday Dec. 9 , Presentations Dec. 14 . Applied regression analysis. See Ch. 3 and Ch. 11 of Using Econometrics for thorough discussions of how you should do such a project. You may but do not have to do this paper in a group of two people.

The paper should be between 10 and 25 pages. Outline follows.

· Cover page with interesting and informative title, date, author name(s)

· Abstract (1 paragraph) OR Executive Summary (1 page or less, often bulletted)

o Must include important results of the paper

· Introduction (1/2 to 1 page)

o Here, motivate reader interest

· Part 1: Literature review (2 to 5 pages)

· Part II: Specification of the theoretical model (1 to 3 pages)

· Part III: Sign hypotheses (1/2 to 3 pages)

o Using a table is a good way to sum this up, or you can use the functional form like Studenmund shows

o For the paper, use variable names that make sense, no matter what variable names you use in your own dataset

· Part IV: Discussion of the data to be analyzed (1 to 3 pages)

o It's a good idea to give descriptive statistics here

· Part V: Presentation of the results, and discussion of the results (1 to 5 pages)

o A table is required here; it is never OK simply to insert computer output. You must create a table that presents the data and you must discuss the table and the meaning of your results. THE MEANING OF YOUR RESULTS IS NOT SELF-EVIDENT.

o You may find http://www.rdg.ac.uk/ssc/develop/dfid/booklets/toptgs.html#a2ninebasicpoints useful (though I disagree with point 9)

· Part VI: Conclusions (3/4 to 3 pages)

o What do your results say we should do? What are the implications for policy analysis and/or public administration/non-profit management?

· References: Correct, full references for all works and data sources cited in the paper

· Appendix: Printed data sets (or, if too large, machine-readable versions), computer runs

Presentations should be created on PowerPoint and presented either from a computer or with overheads printed from PowerPoint. They will be graded on

• Clarity—make the complex simple; be a translator
• “Engagingness”—make it interesting; keep people's attention
• Presentation of statistics
• Presentation of meaning
• Organization
• Focus
• Staying within the time limit (which is likely to be 10 minutes)
• Using no more than 10 slides

The meaning of grades:

As per the ASU Graduate Catalog (p. 96, 2000-2001) grades have the following meanings.

A Excellent (worth 4 points toward GPA)

B Good (worth 3 points)

C Passing (worth 2 points)

D No Graduate Credit (worth 1 point)

E Failure (worth 0 points)

The grade of XE is also available.

XE Failure for Academic Dishonesty

You will definitely earn a grade of "A" by earning an average of 90% or above on the graded assignments for this course.

You will definitely earn at least a "B" by earning an average of 80%-89% on the graded assignments for this course.

You will definitely earn at least a "C" by earning an average of 70%-79% on the graded assignments for this course.

In general, if you are earning less than 70% overall, you are likely earning a grade of "D" or "E".

Generally, the grade of “minus” will be awarded for grades 1 percentage point lower than the cut-offs given above (e.g., 89% would earn an A-, 79% would earn a B-), and the grade of “plus” will be awarded for grades 2 percentage points below that (e.g., 87% would earn B+, 77% C+).

Consequences of Earning a "C" or below . For core courses, no more than two "C" grades can be used on the program of study. Also, students must maintain a 3.0 average.

If a student receives three grades of "C" or below after admission, dismissal from the MPA program will be recommended.

Grades below a "C" cannot be used toward a graduate degree, though they are used to compute GPA.

Workload:

According to the Arizona Board of Regents (see, e.g., the ASU Graduate Catalog 2003-2004, p. 86, “Definition of a Unit of Credit”), every three-credit course must involve a minimum of 135 hours of work. For a 15-week semester, this translates to an average of 9 hours of work per week, including time in class--or a minimum of 6 hours out of class for every 3 hours in. You should consider these time demands along with others in your life when deciding how many courses to take in a semester.

My Grading Philosophy: Grades Awarded Reflect Output

As a professor in a professional master's degree program, I am certifying that you have certain skills. I cannot certify them unless you demonstrate those skills during the course; it would be unethical. Also, if official grades don't reflect performance, it decreases the value of the ASU MPA degree for all. Therefore, grades awarded are grades earned. Grades earned are based on your performance, not on your effort, though borderline final grades may be adjusted upwards for effort demonstrated in the classroom via consistent attendance and useful participation.

I am sympathetic and empathetic toward those of you who are employed and/or have family responsibilities. Nonetheless, you made the choice to attend graduate school, and your grades will reflect graduate standards.

More About Academic Integrity:

Over my years as a professor, I have found that students claim significant confusion regarding cheating and plagiarism.

PLEASE NOTE: Plagiarism is using the words, ideas, or data of others without giving them credit. Giving credit requires using quotation marks when more than three words in a row written or spoken by another are used, and also requires giving full citations for any quotes, including copied graphs or figures, and also for paraphrased ideas or for data used.

Plagiarism is cheating. Cheating, including plagiarism, is grounds for failure.

Please note that manufacturing data or results is also cheating .

Sometimes people have questions about the course texts and the professor's lectures. IF YOU USE DIRECT QUOTES FROM THE TEXTS, YOU MUST USE QUOTATION MARKS AND INDICATE WHICH TEXT AND PAGES THEY COME FROM. Just as it says above, "Giving credit requires using quotation marks when more than three words in a row written or spoken by another are used.…" However, if you use ideas from the texts or the lectures IN THIS CLASS, you do not need to give citations since it is understood these are the course materials. BUT NOTE that if you use these same ideas in another class, then they must be correctly cited.

Now that you know this: if you use a direct quote from the texts without quotation marks and citation, you will get a zero .

My Grading Procedure:

Naturally enough, grades are of significant importance to students. I hope it will be reassuring for you to understand the actual grading procedures I use.

When grading exams, I grade each question across students. That is, first I grade the first question for all students. I compare and re-compare to ensure that I am using the same decision rule for everyone. Then I go on to the next question, and do the same thing. Because I work very hard for consistency, you will find that I will rarely change the number of points a particular student has earned on a particular question unless I have made a mistake. If I was perhaps just too picky, that pickiness will be consistent, and so changing one person's grade wouldn't be fair to others. Statistics requires precision, so you may, in fact, think I am picky; what seems like a small error to you may lead to big errors in conclusions.

After all questions have been graded, I add up the total points, and check by adding up all the points missed and making sure the two numbers equal the total. After all student scores have been added, I usually take the top score and use it as the base for calculating percentages. For example, if the total points available are 20, but the highest score in the class is 19, then a student earning an 18 would earn a 95%, rather than a 90%. Thus, grades are automatically adjusted to reflect how reasonable the exams were—if no student could meet my goal, then the goal was unreasonable, and no one is penalized. You are encouraged to check my math to make sure that I actually awarded you the correct number of points.

When bonus points are available on exams, they truly are bonuses . The entire process described above is performed, scores calculated, and base determined ignoring bonus points. Only then are they added in, meaning that sometimes people earn more than 100%, and also that there is no penalty for not doing bonus questions.

Disabilities:

If you have any disabilities that may hamper your performance in this class, please speak with me and we will plan appropriate adjustments.

Religious Observances:

If your ability to perform any class assignments will be negatively affected by holy days of your religion, please speak with me and we will plan appropriate adjustments.